zmkd WATCH: Trump honors military dog involved in al-Baghdadi raid
发表于 ： 2024年 12月 22日 04:56
Jlry Photo essay: Remnants of the trillion-dollar war in Afghanistan rust in the desert
Last week, Paul Solman examined how polls and election markets parse data to determine who will win an election, in this case, the 2012 presidential race between President Barack Obama and former Mass. governor Mitt Romney. One such pollster, fea stanley cup tured in last week broadcast is Ray Fair, a professor of economics at Yale University, who has come up with his own model to predict elections.Here is the extended conversation between Ray Fair and Paul Solman:PAUL SOLMAN: So what does the Fair model tell us right at the moment about the race to Election Day RAY FAIR: The model says it a very close election. If the economy were booming, the equation would be predicting a pretty substantial Obama victory. If the economy were going into a recession, it would be a substantial Romney victory. The economy more or less in between. The growth rate is not negative; it rising at a rate of a couple of percentage points, so it kind of a mediocre economy, and combining that with Obama having the incumbency advantage, I believe the equation to be predicting, essentially, 50/50. PAUL SOLMAN: And what are the key variables There an output growth variable. You can either think of it as output growth, or employment growth, or the change in the unemployment rate. The variabl stanley cup e I use is per capita GDP growth in the year of the election. Inflation is also a variable. You and I are old enough to remember inflation as a stanley cup bad thing. People don ;t like infl Wbil American Missionaries in Haiti Charged with Abduction
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates AP 鈥?Iran on Monday began enriching uranium up to 20% at an underground facility and seized a South Korean-flagged oil tanker in the crucial Strait of Hor stanley cup muz, further escalating tensions in the Middle East between Tehran and the West.The announcement of enrichment at Fordo came as fears rose that Tehran had seized the MT Hankuk Chemi. Iran later acknowledged the seizure, alleging the vessel oil pollution sparked the move. However, hours earlier, Tehran said a South Korean diplomat was expected to visit in the coming days to negotiate the release of billions of dollars in its assets now frozen in Seoul.The dual incidents come amid heightened tensions between Iran and the United States in the waning days of President Donald Trump term in office. During Trump tenure, the U.S. leader unilaterally withdrew from Tehran nuclear deal with world powers in 2018 and set off months of tense episodes that increasingly strained relations between the countries.Iranian state television quoted spokesman Ali Rabiei as saying that President Hassan Rouhani had given the order for the move at the Fordo facility.Irans de adidas originals cision to begin enriching to 20% purity a decade ago nearly triggered an Israeli strike targeting its nuclear facilities, tensions that only abated with the 2015 atomic deal. A resumption of 20% enrichment could see that brinksmanship return as that level of purity is only a technical step away from adidas samba weapons-grade level
Last week, Paul Solman examined how polls and election markets parse data to determine who will win an election, in this case, the 2012 presidential race between President Barack Obama and former Mass. governor Mitt Romney. One such pollster, fea stanley cup tured in last week broadcast is Ray Fair, a professor of economics at Yale University, who has come up with his own model to predict elections.Here is the extended conversation between Ray Fair and Paul Solman:PAUL SOLMAN: So what does the Fair model tell us right at the moment about the race to Election Day RAY FAIR: The model says it a very close election. If the economy were booming, the equation would be predicting a pretty substantial Obama victory. If the economy were going into a recession, it would be a substantial Romney victory. The economy more or less in between. The growth rate is not negative; it rising at a rate of a couple of percentage points, so it kind of a mediocre economy, and combining that with Obama having the incumbency advantage, I believe the equation to be predicting, essentially, 50/50. PAUL SOLMAN: And what are the key variables There an output growth variable. You can either think of it as output growth, or employment growth, or the change in the unemployment rate. The variabl stanley cup e I use is per capita GDP growth in the year of the election. Inflation is also a variable. You and I are old enough to remember inflation as a stanley cup bad thing. People don ;t like infl Wbil American Missionaries in Haiti Charged with Abduction
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates AP 鈥?Iran on Monday began enriching uranium up to 20% at an underground facility and seized a South Korean-flagged oil tanker in the crucial Strait of Hor stanley cup muz, further escalating tensions in the Middle East between Tehran and the West.The announcement of enrichment at Fordo came as fears rose that Tehran had seized the MT Hankuk Chemi. Iran later acknowledged the seizure, alleging the vessel oil pollution sparked the move. However, hours earlier, Tehran said a South Korean diplomat was expected to visit in the coming days to negotiate the release of billions of dollars in its assets now frozen in Seoul.The dual incidents come amid heightened tensions between Iran and the United States in the waning days of President Donald Trump term in office. During Trump tenure, the U.S. leader unilaterally withdrew from Tehran nuclear deal with world powers in 2018 and set off months of tense episodes that increasingly strained relations between the countries.Iranian state television quoted spokesman Ali Rabiei as saying that President Hassan Rouhani had given the order for the move at the Fordo facility.Irans de adidas originals cision to begin enriching to 20% purity a decade ago nearly triggered an Israeli strike targeting its nuclear facilities, tensions that only abated with the 2015 atomic deal. A resumption of 20% enrichment could see that brinksmanship return as that level of purity is only a technical step away from adidas samba weapons-grade level